Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Trinidad and Tobago

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $854,926$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{880,836.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 139.2)}}\) (asimptote \(880,836.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $86,338$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,384.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 122.1)}}\) (asimptote \(87,384.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,829$ on 2020-10-19

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,212,981$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,238,785.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,238,785.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $220,119$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,385.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 92.2)}}\) (asimptote \(213,385.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,720,259$ on 2020-10-19

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $125,181$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,894.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 143.6)}}\) (asimptote \(128,894.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,574$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,683.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,683.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,062$ on 2020-10-19

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $204,111$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{163,557.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 92.9)}}\) (asimptote \(163,557.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,832$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,142.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,142.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,873$ on 2020-10-19

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,381$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,861.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.5)}}\) (asimptote \(88,861.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,576$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,675.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,675.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,407$ on 2020-10-19

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $97,075$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,859.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 193.7)}}\) (asimptote \(123,859.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,204$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,628.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 190.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,628.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,291$ on 2020-10-19

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $121,667$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,068.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.5)}}\) (asimptote \(126,068.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,203$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,850.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 149.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,850.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,584$ on 2020-10-19

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $101,599$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,561.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 135.5)}}\) (asimptote \(100,561.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,541$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,399.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 114.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,399.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,026$ on 2020-10-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 68%
Dominican Republic recovered 41%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 39%
Panama recovered 18%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,666$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,668.7}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 125.1)}}\) (asimptote \(30,668.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $926$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{906.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 123.8)}}\) (asimptote \(906.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,740$ on 2020-10-19

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,298$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,464.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 181.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,464.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $97$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 178.7)}}\) (asimptote \(114.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,505$ on 2020-10-19