Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $854,926$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{880,836.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 139.2)}}\) (asimptote \(880,836.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $86,338$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,384.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 122.1)}}\) (asimptote \(87,384.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,829$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,212,981$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,238,785.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,238,785.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $220,119$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,385.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 92.2)}}\) (asimptote \(213,385.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,720,259$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $125,181$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,894.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 143.6)}}\) (asimptote \(128,894.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,574$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,683.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,683.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,062$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $204,111$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{163,557.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 92.9)}}\) (asimptote \(163,557.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,832$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,142.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,142.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,873$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $89,381$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,861.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.5)}}\) (asimptote \(88,861.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,576$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,675.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,675.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $51,407$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $97,075$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,859.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 193.7)}}\) (asimptote \(123,859.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,204$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,628.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 190.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,628.5\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,291$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $121,667$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,068.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.5)}}\) (asimptote \(126,068.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,203$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,850.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 149.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,850.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,584$ on 2020-10-19
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $101,599$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,561.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 135.5)}}\) (asimptote \(100,561.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,541$ on 2020-10-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,399.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 114.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,399.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,026$ on 2020-10-19